Do you like to like to leave things up to chance? I don’t, and I have a valid reason for saying this.
The one thing that I found out in the past year is that everything has “odds” of happening; random things do happen but, for the most part, odds play a tremendous part in everyday occurrences.
When I learned this, I freaked out. This means that I have no control over anything. I can’t say if I’m going to lose or not(or can I?). I don’t know exactly what will happen(or will I?).
I’m not trying to be mysterious or anything through the use of those parentheses, rather, I do believe that there is a way to make those “chances” be not so much of a chance occurrence. How is this?
If things move off of probabilities, then it just makes sense to do things that have high odds of success, right?
To go for ways to make money that, either has fundamental backings that, due to common sense will allow it to make sense or, have been proven to make money for other individuals.
To have an edge. (I’m going to explain why I don’t believe that completely following in another’s footsteps makes the most sense though, at least if you want to make big money).
I am always going to give market analogies, it’s one of the things that I have the most thorough understanding of.
*one of the reasons why I love writing this blog is because it allows me to get across to you things that I’ve been learning.
This is a form of teaching; teaching allows us to make connections that we wouldn’t have made without doing so.
It gives us a greater understanding of our understanding if you will.
My understanding of an “edge” is something that is proven to work.
It has been tested time and time again to rid it of any possible bugs before being used.
An edge is something that has been tested to the point that we already understand it has a high probability of working for us; meaning that the upside is always higher than the downside.
An edge in the markets, and is something that has been backtested again and again to give you an understanding of whether or not it will work.
It must have some underlying principle(one that makes complete sense) explaining why it should work.
For instance, it can be based on a linkage between two completely different markets, such as Stocks and Bonds.
i.e. One can build a model based off of the tendency for overall stock prices to rise when bond yields fall (bond yields are falling generally shows that investors are willing to take on more risk and that they “believe” in the economy thus, somewhat explaining why they would invest in a highly risky investment such as a stock).
Developing a skill is akin to developing an edge
Here’s the funny part about this post, it isn’t completely tied to the market; I’m about to relay to you an analogy that isn’t based on stocks and bonds.
If I fail (I never truly fail by the way), I want it to be of my own accord. I want it to be because I did something wrong that I can look back on and learn from.
I refuse to let my failure depend upon the actions of another (or several other) individuals; there is way too much risk involved in that.
Having a skill (one that we truly know how to utilize) get rid of that risk(kind of)
I don’t believe that any true comfort can be gained from indefinitely working under another individual.
Think of a workplace where we all work with other individuals as a clock and consider yourself a cog. Now, in order to make this example really pop to us, we’re going to have to give a bit of life to these cogs.
We, as cogs understand that the fluid functioning of the clock is one that depends entirely on the way that the other individuals behave; if they do their jobs at a subpar level, the clock will slow down and, the individual who owns it (the consumer), will begin to seek a replacement.
*this analogy may not work the best simply because of what I’m going to say next
If the other individual cogs work as hard as they can, the machine as a whole will work at tip-top efficiency and, may even speed up a bit (this can cause the clock to be replaced in real life but, for the sake of this beautiful analogy it must be looked over).
Do you understand how worried I would constantly be if I understood that my entire livelihood depended on the actions of several other individuals?
Everything, from the actions that my “superiors” would take in response to my colleague’s behavior, to the work that would be thrown on me if my colleagues didn’t work efficiently; I do not enjoy it.
Having a deep knowledge of something/edge/ skill may not make life any easier but it does make us self-sufficient; which gets rid of some of the risks that I associate with placing all of my earning potential in the hands of another individual.
There isn’t anything wrong with working under other people; some may just not have the stress-tolerance that having to completely fend for yourself requires.
This comes down to understanding yourself (while not limiting yourself due to self-doubt).
I know that this post kind of drifted a bit but, it the premise behind the words still remains clear; to be able to feed yourself consistently, one must find an edge one that is repeatable.
Originally posted 2018-05-30 12:30:22.